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Estimation Activity

Close Enough

Every question has a real number as its answer, and you don’t give the number — you give a range you believe it falls inside. A narrow range that contains the answer scores well; a wide one scores little; a range that misses scores nothing however narrow it was. Covering the whole scale is worth zero, so there is no safe answer. Six looks ship with it — the activity’s own, plus a beach, a card room, an arcade, a glasshouse and a summit, each drawn in the file itself with no images to load. Switch mid-session from the masthead; a saved copy keeps the one you chose.

Screenshot of Close Enough

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Problem
Nobody in operations knows the exact number. What separates people is whether they know how much they don’t know. “Between 40 and 60” from someone genuinely uncertain is a better answer than a flat “50” — and no quiz format can tell those two apart.
Who it helps
Anyone who has to plan, forecast, or set expectations — supervisors sizing a workload, trainers estimating ramp time, teams committing to a number they will be held to.
In training
The misses matter more than the scores. A range that missed entirely means the room was confident about something it had wrong, which is a different problem from guessing badly, and the closing screen counts them for you.
Skills shown
Calibration scoring with a quadratic width penalty, range input with live preview, scale visualisation, assessment design, in-browser editing with persistent export.

How to edit

  1. Click Edit this activity in the corner.
  2. Each question needs a real answer, a unit, and a floor and ceiling — the scale the range is measured against.
  3. The floor and ceiling matter more than they look: they set how much a wide range costs. Too generous and everything scores well.
  4. The why is where the teaching sits. Say which direction people usually guess wrong and what causes it.
  5. Click Save my version for a copy with your questions built in.